Validation and Extended Usage of Scientific Fatigue Models enhancing Airline Flight Safety

Purpose and goal

The purpose of this project has been to strengthen aviation security by improving the tools used in what is called ´Fatigue Risk Management´. More specifically, the aim has been to validate, expand and improve a biomathematichal model for sleep and sleepiness prediction (TPM), communicate the results and improve and develop on related products of particular value for the aviation industry. The objectives of the project are described above. The purpose has been fulfilled in that all the objectives of the project (see above) have been achieved.

Results and expected effects

We expected that the predictions from the TPM would be valid in terms of sleep and fatigue in flight personnel, and that the model could be extended with functions for individual differences, diurnal type and time zone acclimation (jet lag). The results submitted for review and publication in a scientific journal confirm this.

Approach and implementation

The project´s approach has been to 1) collect empirical data on sleep, duty and fatigue from flying personnel, 2) statistically validate the TPM on data collected, 3) expand the TPM with new features, and 4) publish the results scientifically. Work has progressed as expected and the results are currently submitted for review and publication in a scientific journal. Work remains for development of risk indices, including other predictors than fatigue (see item 10 below under objectives) and will be completed in 2014 under the leadership of Jeppesen Systems AB.