Next-Generation Modeling of Cloud Feedbacks and Climate Change using AI: Implications for Alternative Energy

Purpose and goal

The purpose of the project is, first, to pioneer a new technology for predicting climate change. Since clouds control the climate sensitivity to any forcing, the coarse representations of clouds in a global model will be replaced by our detailed cloud scheme accelerated by AI. Informed by a more accurate prediction of climate change, an assessment will be made about how the optimum extents and locations of the alternative energy supply for northern Europe will be impacted by climate until 2100.

Expected effects and result

Scientific results will be published in peer-reviewed journals and at conferences. A public report will be written about impacts on renewable resources from climate change and made available on the web. Various media will be used. Optimum locations of future solar energy, wind and hydroelectric energy installations over Sweden will be estimated. A final report will be provided to stakeholder partners. Knowing the future feasilibity of alternative energy sources will facilitate investment.

Planned approach and implementation

(1) with a single column model (SCM) version of a global climate model, simulate an observed storm; (2) include AI schemes for clouds and radiation in the global model of the SCM test-bed, with training on a 3D high-resolution cloud simulation; (3) simulate climate change with this AI-accelerated global model, while fully training the scheme; validate the present-day simulation; and quantify cloud-radiation feedback; (4) evaluate impacts for energy supply, in collaboration with two energy companies and SMHI, with a simulation of the AI-accelerated global model.