An innovative tool for faster and more cost efficient response in refugee crises

Purpose and goal

Based on our analysis of UNHCR´s current scenario planning process and review of available techniques, we have identified a suitable approach for UNHCR to predict future refugee crises and thereby estimate future demand. We have gathered historical supply data as well as identified and evaluated a range of available data sources that are critical for scenario planning. We have also created an Excel-based tool that UNHCR can use to optimize their network of global warehouses in order to reduce their costs and lead times when responding to emergency situations.

Expected results and effects

The project highlights the challenges involved in estimating where, when, and how future refugee crises emerge. Based on a thorough analysis of UNHCR´s processes and available data systems, as well as mapping the availability of historical supply data, global databases, and conflict data, we develop a method for UNCHR to improve their scenario planning. In the next phase, the new method will be incorporated in the tool to enable optimization of the network of global warehouses.

Planned approach and implementation

The project involves close collaboration with UNHCR. We have participated in numerous conferences with UNHCRs own experts in logistics and planning in order to better understand the challenges and opportunities to predict future refugee crises. Together with UNHCR, we have accessed and compiled historical supply data which is used to assess how a wide range of indices (e.g. INFORM) and conflict data (e.g. UCDP) can be used for scenario planning.