On track to climate neutral long-distance travel 2045 - technology, travel patterns, high-altitude impact

Purpose and goal

The aim of the project has been to explore opportunities to reduce aviation´s climate impact. This includes alternatives to air travel such as night trains and high-speed trains, but also opportunities to reduce the impact of air travel as such through alternative fuels and various measures to reduce the high altitude climate impact. An overall system perspective on how long-distance travel can be developed in line with the climate goals has been taken in a scenario study. The project also includes analysis of policies to mitigate the climate impact of aviation.

Expected results and effects

A "stated preference" study indicates that new modern direct night trains could replace up to 20-30% of flights to Central Europe. Another study shows relatively good opportunities to reduce the high-altitude effects of aviation, and an important measure that has been identified is to reserve the use of alternative fuels for flights where the risk of contrails is high. Our scenario study shows that air travel would need to be roughly halved to be in line with a maximum global warming of 1.75 degrees. Results have been disseminated through over 30 presentations and features in media.

Planned approach and implementation

A reference group has been connected to the project, including representatives from the aviation and railway sectors. The group has contributed with background data to various sub-projects and provided valuable comments on draft publications. Different methods and approaches have been used in the project, such as "stated preference" studies, scenario studies, policy analysis and a life cycle perspective.